IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol (CFP)

The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated on Wednesday that it anticipated a peak in global emissions in 2025, as rising energy costs brought on by the war in Ukraine spur investment in renewable energy sources.

The IEA only said that there was "no clear peak in sight" for energy emissions last year; nevertheless, the new increased investment in wind and solar energy will result in a peak or a flat line in demand for all fossil fuels, which will lead to a decrease in emissions.

According to the annual World Energy Outlook released last year, "The global energy crisis triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine is causing profound and long-lasting changes that have the potential to hasten the transition to a more sustainable and secure energy system."

The IEA forecasts that by 2030, global renewable energy investment would have increased by more than 50% from current levels thus reaching $2 trillion per year, based on the most recent policies and measures announced by a number of countries in response to skyrocketing energy costs.

These actions will encourage continued advancements in nuclear and renewable energy. As a result, a peak in world emissions, said the IEA, will be reached in 2025.

By 2050, global CO2 emissions are predicted to gradually decline from a peak of 37 billion tonnes annually to 32 billion tonnes.

Fossil fuel demands, renewables global investment, and net zero

The Paris-based organization, which provides advice to countries that use a lot of energy, stated that according to its estimate, demand for all fossil fuels will peak or plateau.

The use of coal, which briefly increased, will begin to decline over the following few years as additional renewable energy sources come online. Instead of the earlier prediction of a constant growth, natural gas reaches a plateau towards the end of the decade.

Instead of the prior prediction of a constant growth, oil consumption plateau in the mid-2030s and then steadily drop towards the middle of the century owing to the adoption of electric vehicles.

Overall, under the IEA's stated policy scenario, the proportion of fossil fuels in the world's energy mix decreases from around 80% to slightly above 60% by 2050.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol in a statement that the "Energy markets and policies have changed as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, not just for the time being, but for decades to come."

However, that will not eliminate the world track towards the 2.5 degrees Celsius rise in global temperatures by the end of the century. This rise conitues to threaten severe climate change impacts.

In order to meet the 1.5C warming objective stipulated in the Paris Climate Accord, the IEA also proposed a scenario that called for zero net emissions in 2050. In order to achieve that, renewable energy investments would have to double from the present prediction of $2 trillion year to $4 trillion annually by 2030.

Laurence Tubiana, head of the European Climate Foundation and France's former climate ambassador, said that "The IEA, with all its expertise and authority is clear: clean energy investments must triple by 2030, and gas is a dead end," adding that "The current European energy crisis clearly proves the dangers of gas: high price, volatility, geopolitical dependence," she added.