US President Joe Biden in the Roosevelt Room of the White House in Washington, September 25, 2023. (AP)

The Biden administration is treading toward no man's land, mulling giving security guarantees to Saudi Arabia and helping its ally, ties with whom have been strained, develop a civilian nuclear program - all in return for normalization with the Israeli occupation.

The United States, through this deal, would be serving its national security interests, the Biden administration claims as Washington gives paramount concessions to Riyadh.

However, Responsible Statecraft's Jonathan Hoffman argues that Biden and the Biden administration are "wrong", calling a "catastrophic miscalculation" the signing of a mutual security agreement with Saudi Arabia due to the deep existing divide between the interests and values of the two allies.

Saudi Arabia's demand for enhanced security commitments, even with its existing strategic alignment with the Israeli occupation, is part of a calculated strategy by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the report alleges. He aims to capitalize on concerns in Washington about waning influence in the Middle East vis-à-vis Russia and China, according to Hoffman.

"In private, Saudi officials said, the crown prince has said he expects that by playing major powers against each other, Saudi Arabia can eventually pressure Washington to concede to its demands for better access to US weapons and nuclear technology," the Wall Street Journal said previously, as cited by Responsible Statecraft.

Fear of a loss of influence

This tactic, the report added, known as "reverse leverage," has been used effectively by Saudi Arabia and other regional partners. They have stoked American fears of losing ground to other global actors, pressuring the US for policy concessions.

Bin Salman's ambiguous stance regarding the so-called "Abraham Accords" aims to expand normalization between the Israeli occupation and Arab states, the report alleges. Meanwhile, the United States is prepared to go above and beyond in a bid to fortify its regional influence as it loses ground to Russia and China.

This loss of influence comes despite a slew of deals brokered by the United States normalizing ties between the Israeli occupation and numerous Arab states, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco, with a recent push to even include Libya and Saudi Arabia.

Nonetheless, regional actors see the normalization deals differently. They view them as a mechanism to ensure ongoing US involvement in the region, guaranteeing their security while extracting concessions.

The normalization deals have already granted substantial policy concessions to participating Arab states, with limited debate on whether these align with US interests.

Saudi Arabia knows all of the aforementioned, and Riyadh is considering taking the step to join the flock of nations to normalize as it sees it as a tool that would get Washington to make sweeping concessions and garner protection from its ally.

Critics see that the United States is making commitments that are harmful to its national security at a time when its influence is waning; they allege that Washington continues to give life to a vicious cycle where the US supports states that are contributing to regional instability, perhaps in reference to the war on Yemen, among other issues.

Finally, Hoffman argues that the United States is making so many concessions and undermining its own national security for regional actors "at a time when it had become clear that the region hardly matters to US national security."

Saudi-Israeli normalization closer than you think

Bin Salman recently admitted that Saudi Arabia was getting closer to normalizing ties with the Israeli occupation in an interview with Fox News.

Saudi Arabia has been seeking US assistance to develop a civilian nuclear program as part of ongoing talks brokered by the US aimed at normalizing relations between Riyadh and "Israel." This intricate arrangement could reshape Middle East geopolitics.

The negotiations for a potential normalization deal involve the US providing Riyadh with security assurances and support for a civilian nuclear program. In return, Saudi Arabia would normalize relations with "Israel" and seek concessions from it regarding the Palestinian issue.

The matter of allowing Saudi Arabia to develop a civil nuclear program has been one of the most contentious aspects of these talks. Concerns have arisen over the potential for uranium enrichment in Saudi Arabia, as it could eventually facilitate nuclear weapon production. The US has been more inclined toward Saudi Arabia procuring nuclear fuel from the international market rather than enabling on-site uranium enrichment.

However, US officials have recently shown openness to Saudi Arabia's requests for civil nuclear cooperation and discussed ways to address Israeli concerns regarding Saudi uranium enrichment.

While some members of the Israeli security establishment have reservations about endorsing a US-backed Saudi nuclear program, others argue that Saudi Arabia has alternative options if the US rejects its demands.

Meanwhile, in a series of interviews with US media outlets following his address at the United Nations General Assembly, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu revealed details of what he referred to as a "historic deal" with Saudi Arabia.

In an interview with Fox News, he said "I think we're getting closer to peace every day that passes," emphasizing the urgency of the situation, stating, "We have a limited window of opportunity to reach an agreement in the coming months, otherwise - the process could take years."

Highlighting the collaborative effort between the United States, Saudi Arabia, and "Israel", Netanyahu noted, "I think that when you have three leaders and three countries that avidly want a result – the United States under President Biden, Saudi Arabia under the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Israel under my premiership – I think that really raises the possibility we'll succeed."