In this image released by the Saudi Royal Palace, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, right, greets President Joe Biden with a fist bump after his arrival in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on Friday, July 15, 2022 (Bandar Aljaloud/Saudi Royal Palace via AP)

Reuters reported on Friday, citing three sources close to the matter, that Saudi Arabia is determined to secure a military pact requiring the US to defend the kingdom in return for normalizing ties with "Israel."

The report further detailed how Saudi Arabia will not hold up a deal even if "Israel" does not offer major concessions to Palestinians in their bid for statehood.

As per the sources, the envisioned pact may not meet the initial aspirations for ironclad NATO-style defense guarantees that the kingdom initially sought. Instead, it might resemble agreements akin to those Washington has with Asian nations.

If gaining approval from the US Congress proves challenging, it could take a form similar to the US agreement with Bahrain, where the US Navy's Fifth Fleet is stationed. Such an arrangement would not require congressional endorsement.

To enhance the appeal of the deal, the US could potentially grant Saudi Arabia the status of a Major Non-NATO Ally, a designation already held by "Israel", as suggested by the US source.

Nonetheless, all sources emphasize that Saudi Arabia is unwavering in its insistence on receiving binding assurances of US protection in the event of an attack, similar to the missile strikes on its oil facilities that occurred on September 14, 2019, causing global market disturbances. Riyadh and Washington attributed these strikes to Iran, Saudi Arabia's regional rival, although Iran denied any involvement.

Positive or negative stakes?

According to the report, the prospect of agreements that provide the world's largest oil exporter with US protection in exchange for normalizing relations with "Israel" carries significant geopolitical implications. It would bring together two historic adversaries and solidify Riyadh's alliance with Washington, particularly in light of China's expanding influence in the region.

For President Biden, such an achievement would constitute a notable diplomatic victory leading up to the 2024 US election.

While the Palestinians might see certain Israeli restrictions alleviated, these actions would not fully align with their goal of achieving statehood. As seen in previous normalization deals established over the years, the primary Palestinian demand for statehood would not be the central focus.

"The normalization will be between "Israel" and Saudi Arabia. If the Palestinians oppose it the kingdom will continue in its path," said one of the regional sources. "Saudi Arabia supports a peace plan for the Palestinians, but this time it wanted something for Saudi Arabia, not just for the Palestinians."

What are the specifics?

Though the negotiations over the defense pact are still ongoing, the specifics are still being defined, one of the sources said. It's expected to be a mutual defense understanding rather than a full treaty, resembling the US-"Israel" relationship with arms transfers and joint military exercises.

Saudi Arabia initially sought a NATO-style treaty, but the US is cautious about a commitment like NATO's Article 5, which considers an attack on one ally, an attack on all.

Alternate models under consideration include agreements with Asian allies where the US offers military support without specifying troop deployments, though some US lawmakers may oppose this.

Another option is an arrangement akin to the agreement with Bahrain, where both nations consult on potential actions against external threats without the need for congressional approval.

Saudi Arabia might also receive Major Non-NATO Ally status, providing benefits like training. Riyadh is reportedly making concessions, including in civilian nuclear technology plans, such as agreeing to Section 123 of the US Atomic Energy Act.

The Saudi demand for protection if attacked remains a key condition, possibly leading to a deal resembling Bahrain's agreement but with additional commitments.