Most Democrats don’t want Biden in 2024: Poll

Around 64% of Democratic voters say they would prefer a new standard-bearer in the 2024 presidential campaign, as voters nationwide have soured on his leadership, giving him a meager 33% job-approval rating, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll.

Widespread concerns about the economy and inflation have contributed to a decidedly gloomy national mood, both on Biden and the nation's trajectory.

More than three-quarters of registered voters believe the United States is heading in the wrong direction, a pervasive sense of pessimism that extends across the country, every age range and racial group, cities, suburbs, and rural areas, and both political parties.

Only 13% of American voters said the country was on the right track, the lowest level in Times polling since the financial crisis a decade ago.

That bleak national outlook has pushed Biden's job approval rating dangerously low. Republican opposition is predictable, but more than two-thirds of independents now disapprove of the President's performance, with nearly half strongly disapproving.

His approval rating among fellow Democrats is 70%, a relatively low figure for a president, especially as we approach the 2022 midterm elections when Biden will need to rally Democrats to the polls in order to keep control of Congress.

Democrats’ reasons for a different candidate

According to 20% of voters, the most pressing issue facing the country is jobs and the economy, with inflation and the cost of living (15%) trailing closely behind as prices rise at the fastest rate in a generation.

Following several high-profile mass shootings, one in ten voters named the state of American democracy and political division as the most pressing issue, roughly the same share as those who named gun policies.

More than 75% of those polled said the economy was "extremely important" to them. Despite this, only 1% rated economic conditions as excellent. Only 6% of those of working age — voters aged 18 to 64 — thought the economy was good or excellent, while 93% thought it was poor or only fair.

The White House has attempted to highlight strong job growth, most recently on Friday when Vice President Biden declared that he had presided over "the fastest and strongest jobs recovery in American history." However, the Times/Siena poll revealed a significant gap between those boasts, the strength of some economic indicators, and the financial reality that most Americans believe they are facing.

“We used to spend $200 a week just going out to have fun, or going and buying extra groceries if we needed it, and now we can’t even do that,” said Kelly King, a former factory worker in Greensburg, Ind., who is currently sidelined because of a back injury. “We’re barely able to buy what we need.”

Lower percentage for Trump

One glimmer of good news for Biden is that the survey showed him with a narrow edge in a hypothetical rematch in 2024 with former President Donald Trump: 44% to 41%.

The poll showed that Democratic misgivings about Biden seemed to mostly melt away when presented with a choice between him and Trump: 92% of Democrats said they would stick with Biden.

Roe v. Wade

The Times/Siena survey of 849 registered voters nationwide was conducted from July 5 to 7, in the aftermath of the Supreme Court’s June 24 decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, eliminating the constitutional right to an abortion, which had been protected for half a century. The ruling sent Democrats into the streets and unleashed an outpouring of political contributions.

Typically, voters aligned with the party in power — Democrats now hold the House, the Senate, and the White House — are more upbeat about the nation’s direction. But only 27% of Democrats saw the country as on the right track. And with the fall of Roe, there was a notable gender gap among Democrats: Only 20% of Democratic women said the country was moving in the right direction, compared with 39% of Democratic men.

Overall, abortion was rated as the most important issue for 5% of voters: 1% of men, and 9% of women.

Gun policies

Gun policies, following mass shootings in Buffalo, Uvalde, Tex., and elsewhere, and the Supreme Court’s June 23 ruling striking down a New York law that placed strict limits on carrying guns outside the home, were ranked as the top issue by 10% of voters — far higher than has been typical of nationwide polls in recent years.

The issue was of even greater importance to Black and Hispanic voters, ranking roughly the same in terms of inflation and the cost of living, the survey found.

The coronavirus pandemic, which so thoroughly disrupted life at the end of the Trump administration and over the first year of Biden’s presidency, has largely receded from voters’ minds, the survey found. However, in an open-ended question, fewer than 1% of voters named the virus as the nation’s most important problem.