Welcome to Turkish Elections 101. This is not a basic breakdown, but a playout of a scenario of what could be Turkey after May 14 – if it’s the opposition’s future playground or Erdogan’s construction site of an Ottoman Empire 2.0.

The 2024 presidential elections are a pivotal point for Turkey’s Islamic image, given that Erdogan sews it in the social fabric while Kilicdaroglu seeks a more Ataturkian approach to secularism.

The elections were scheduled for June 18 but were pushed back to May 14, not at all coincidental. On May 14, 1950, the Democrat Party (DP) led by Adnan Menderes, ended the CHP’s 20-year reign under CHP founder, and the father of modern-day Turkey, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, who was ushering in a Western-leaning Turkey in highly secular mold. Menderes swooped in with a populist tone and a social development plan that won the hearts of Turkey’s rural majority – much like Erdogan today.

Here’s the rundown

The two main opponents in the candidacy are the ruling party, the Justice and Development (AKP) led by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the opposition party, Republican People's Party (CHP) represented by Kemal Kilicdaroglu. However, two other independent parties are running alongside which are Sinan Ogan of the Nationalist Party (MHP) and Muharrem Ince of the Homeland Party (MP).

The AKP was formed in 2001, by former Istanbul mayor Erdogan and foreign prime minister Abdullah Gul. The former frenemies-turned-foes fell from grace after Gul criticized the “Turkish-style presidential system” and likened a more American approach, so Gul left the party and Erdogan took over.

The CHP was established in 1923 by Ataturk who was mirroring Western laws related to economic, educational, and legal changes – and deeply entrenched in nationalistic ideologies under the ‘Six Arrows’: populism, republicanism, statism, secularism, revolution, and nationalism. These elements are the pillars of what is now the Kemalist movement.

With other parties running against Erdogan and his policies but with not enough traction to get to his level, the Table of Six (Altinin Masa) was formed and Kilicdaroglu was elected as the representative of the total opposition. The coalition chairs the CHP; Meral Aksener of the IYI (Good) Party; Ali Babacan of the DEVA (Democracy and Progress) party, Temel Karamollaoglu of the SP (Felicity) party; Ahmet Davutoglu of the GP (Future) party; and Gultekin Uysal of the DP (Democrat) Party.

"Despite the political crises, the pandemic, and the earthquake, they [the AK Party] are leading the polls," said Prof. Dr. Emre Erdogan, political scientist and head of the International Relations Department at Istanbul Bilgi University, in an interview with Al Mayadeen English.

Dangerous liaisons with the West

Briefly weighing in the balance first and foremost is crucial to better understand the chances of winning and what each candidate serves for the external forces aka the West and the US.

Erdogan is a populist, plainly put. His anti-elitist rhetoric plays well on the hearts of ‘the people’ which brands him their caretaker, as a populist speaks ‘for the people’ and on behalf of them. His charisma serves as a fortifying factor in getting his message across ‘the people’ who view him as a paternalistic figure – especially those in the rural areas of Turkey with a conservative background with strong ties to the Muslim Brotherhood.

Kilicdaroglu, on the other hand, epitomizes the nationalist character – representing the aristocracy and thus the elite. His weak aura which lacks charisma fails to capture the majority conservative populace of Turkey but grabs the attention of the urban community’s desire to revive Ataturk’s dream of a Westernized Turkiye. He thus symbolizes a self-serving chaser of pre-May 14 dreams stopped by the rise of Erdogan and his neo-caudillismo (leadership of a strongman) approach to internal politics.

As for handling external forces, the threshold of threat and of cordiality differs among both the AKP and CHP leaders.

Regarding NATO and taking into consideration Finland’s recent accession into the organization through Erdogan’s approval, Sweden remains an outcast, especially after its Quran-burning campaign and Swedish politician Rasmus Paludan’s anti-Muslim provocations. Erdogan’s refusal to allow Sweden to enter NATO, as a result, will only serve as a chance for Kilicdaroglu to win Europe over if he takes over the elections – by making sure all obstacles are removed to guarantee Sweden’s accession.

That being said, Erdogan has held a reserved stance against Europe in light of his ties with Russia and the war in Ukraine. The CHP takes a pro-Europe view principally due to the ambition to build Ataturk’s Turkey once again and hold hands with the West. That doesn’t quite sit well with the AKP, which values the nation’s dependence on Russia for gas and energy and thus handles it with care after the West imposed draconian sanctions on Russia for the war in Ukraine.

While Erdogan is calling the US out for their bluff and attempts to put their hands in Turkish politics, Kilicdaroglu is out seeking for ways to follow in American footsteps and restore ties that fit the Ataturkian approach for a secular utopia in modern-day Turkey.

People think that the government will be totally pro-European. No, it won't be. There are some anti-European members of the Table of Six," said Prof. Dr. Erdogan, adding that members "such as Saadet partisi, are totally very religious and they are totally anti-western. And there is no consensus on the full membership to the EU."

Playing under a house of cards

To increase voter turnout and win over the conservative majority, Kilicdaroglu has been promoting the term "helallesme" in his campaign which in Turkish means to be forgiven for mistakes or wrongdoings, mainly used in religious contexts. In his campaign video in 2021, as he was preparing for the elections, he asks the audience for "helallesme” in order “to heal Turkey's wounds" as he attempts to play on the emotional yet nationalistic feelings of the voter. He has also attempted at playing the hijab card by encouraging women to wear headscarves in public places in Turkey – a move he has long worked against.

Current events in Turkey, such as the skyrocketing inflation and the February 6 devastating earthquakes, played and continue to play a significant and decisive role in Erdogan’s fate as Turkey’s reigning president dreaming of a Neo-Ottoman Empire.

In the game of who gets to be president, Kilicdaroglu labels Erdogan a fraud while Erdogan continuously blames the CHP party for the 2013 protests and 2016 failed coup which he says were orchestrated hand-in-hand with the West.

Although Erdogan's response to the earthquake aftermath and the economic collapse have planted frustration in his voters, they remain committed to his path and according to Berk Esen, professor at Sabanci University to the Financial Times, it is additionally because “the opposition has not created an appealing, credible alternative.”

"You know, we had the earthquakes and its estimated damage is about $100 billion and estimated expenses, about 30 billion US dollars - money which Turkey doesn't have," said Prof. Dr. Erdogan.

However, having the talent to appeal to the majority’s will alongside his unshakeable religious ideology, Erdogan still scores a win internally and by establishing cordial ties with superpowers, Iran and Russia, is considered a major victory for him regionally and in drawing his lines in the soil of Syria.

Even on the topic of Syria, upon being asked about how this affects the elections, Prof. Dr. Erdogan stated that the President sold the refugee matter to his supporters by using the 'Kardeslik' card, meaning that he called them brothers and sisters and that "we need to help, etc... and the AK party they accepted. Indeed, the opposition had a harsher position. Always."

The May 14 elections will decide Turkey’s fate – it will either become a test of Erdogan’s resilience and intention to keep the country on its feet or it will bring forth a new era of secular and Europeanized Turkey that conforms to the wants of the West and brushes off the needs of the Turkish majority.

Turkish Elections 2023: Resurrecting Ataturk or the Empire