Mounted police confront anti-government protesters in "Tel Aviv", "Israel", Monday, March 27, 2023. (AP)

For the past few months, all eyes are on the Israeli occupation as it faces local unrest. Mass protests took place against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government decisions, which include preventing an overhaul of the court system that seeks to reform the traditionally powerful Israeli judiciary. However, analysts suggest that the real threat is the "electoral rise of the settler population's ultra-Orthodox population."

The occupation's ultra-Orthodox settlers have long been the third rail of Israeli politics. The ultra-Orthodox settler community has served as a stop-gap in Israeli governing coalitions, presenting as a willing quid-pro-quo partner that could fill out a coalition with the requisite seats needed to form a government.

Ultra-Orthodox community

In a piece by UnHerd, the report explains that the exchange was simple, arguing that the coalition takes care of a few key demands, such as funding of state-sponsored yeshivas or centers of religious study, and the ultra-Orthodox parties offer a willing vote on most issues.

With 18 of the current government’s 64 seats coming from ultra-Orthodox parties and another 13 coming from religious Right-wing parties, we are witnessing a major shift, UnHerd reported. For the first time, the occupation's secular Left has seen its deepest demographic fears spring to life.

With the ultra-Orthodox birthrates approaching seven per woman, nearly triple that of secular Israelis, electoral dominance by the occupation's religious group is a virtual certainty. While the secular Left has been aware of this for some time, it has never been a political fact.

Since the beginning of the occupation, the Labor Party ruled the country politically, economically, and culturally, according to UnHerd. The most cherished institutions, including the IOF, were dominated by Labor.

This dominance began to fracture in the years after the First Intifada and finally shattered with Labor dropping from a major party to a political afterthought. Labor now has only four seats in the occupation Knesset. That said, the greatest strength of the secular Left, its unity, was lost.

Secular settlers

For most seculars, the court is the last line of security against what they see as religious voters rewriting the occupation's "constitution," according to UnHerd. Since the days of Aharon Barak, a former Israeli Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, the Israeli occupation's judiciary has not been shy about overturning Knesset legislation.

While the judicial reforms are expected to shift the balance of power, this really means a shift in the occupation's politics and both cultural and economic conditions, according to UnHerd, as this is enough of an incentive to keep hundreds of thousands of mostly secular settlers on the streets for nearly a year.

The report adds that the resignation of Netanyahu’s security minister might even topple the occupation government, which could postpone the judicial reforms or even completely derail them. However, secular settlers who still comprise about 45% of the total population will not stand by as this long-term trend unfolds.

While the ultra-Orthodox parties were for decades willing to put aside differences, and even principles, in favor of creating a united voting bloc, the report suggests that it is possible to still see a political realignment that shifts the traditional political axis.

A different scenario is suggested by UnHerd, arguing that "Israel" is likely to witness the rise of a new axis focused on religious-secular issues that will unite moderate and hard left, centrist and even right-of-center secular Israelis under the banner of a new resistance to "religionization of the state." By taking a leap to the center, the Israeli left may reemerge as a political force, according to the report.

"It’s a watershed moment, with secular Israelis seeing the protest movement as proof that when politically unified, their demographic strength may remain intact."