A Russian helicopter flies over the Hmeimim Air Base, a Syrian airbase currently operated by Russia, located southeast of the city of Latakia in the town of Hmeimim, Syria, on Monday, December 16, 2024. (AP)

Russia has initiated a significant withdrawal of troops and military equipment from Syria following the removal of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, US and Western intelligence sources told CNN. The withdrawal, described as large-scale, began last week, though the sources are uncertain whether it is permanent.

The move coincides with reports that Russian officials are exploring negotiations with Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which leads the new regime forces, to retain access to key military facilities, including the Hmeimim airbase in Latakia and the Tartus naval port, both critical for Russia's regional military presence.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov revealed on Thursday that the contacts with HTS were "constructive." He stated that Moscow's aim was to ensure that HTS fulfills its commitments to maintain order, prevent any "excesses," and guarantee the safety of diplomats and foreign nationals.

The deputy foreign minister also underscored Russia's determination to retain its military presence in Syria. The Tartus naval base and the Hmeimim Air Base, near Latakia, remain pivotal to Moscow's efforts against international terrorism, he said.

"The bases are still there, at the request of the Syrians, with the aim of combating terrorists from the Islamic State. No other decisions have been made at this time," Bogdanov noted.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed in a recent briefing that Russia had engaged in dialogue with the new regime forces in Damascus. "We must maintain contact with those who are controlling the situation on the ground because, as I mentioned, we have facilities and personnel there," Peskov said.

US officials also revealed that Russia had started relocating naval assets from Syria to Libya. Moscow is reportedly pressuring Libyan National Army commander Khalifa Haftar to secure a port in Benghazi. Losing access to Tartus in Syria would leave Russia without a Mediterranean base, limiting its ability to maintain power and transport materials between Russia and Africa.

Satellite images from Maxar, reported by CNN, show preparations for withdrawal at Russia's Hmeimim airbase. Heavy transport planes, disassembled attack helicopters, and components of S-400 air defense systems were seen being packed for transport.

Withdrawal or sanctions

In a related context, Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp called earlier today for Russia's military withdrawal from Syria as a key condition for lifting European Union sanctions on HTS.

Speaking ahead of an EU foreign ministers meeting, Veldkamp stressed the need to tie sanctions relief to an inclusive political transition and the removal of Russian forces.

"I think it's too early to lift those sanctions," Veldkamp said. "We really would like to condition that on an inclusive political transition."

He added, "It's also important to look at conditionality regarding the Russian military bases in Syria. We want the Russians out."

Pursuit of alternatives

Withdrawal or sanctions